Don’t know if it will rain tomorrow, but

the World Gold Council just published a report discussing the next three decades for gold – Gold 2048. Based on the opinions of several industry experts, the document discusses where key trends may lead the precious commodity and the industry:

  • The expanding middle class in China and India, combined with broader economic growth, will have a significant impact on gold demand.
  • Use of gold across energy, healthcare and technology is changing rapidly. Gold’s position as a material of choice is expected to continue and evolve over the coming decades.
  • Mobile apps for gold investment, which allow individuals to buy, sell, invest and gift gold will develop rapidly in India and China.
  • Environmental, social and governance issues will play an increasing role in re-shaping mining production methods.
  • The gold mining industry will have to grapple with the challenge of producing similar levels of gold over the next 30 years to match the volume it has historically delivered.

The best way to avoid getting wet in tomorrow’s economy is to listen to the weatherman, reading experts’ opinions to form your own. The report is available at the World Gold Council’s website.

gold, gold, gold, crypto coins, blockchain and diamonds

What happened, what may happen

For those interested in the yellow metal, the World Gold Council recently released two documents on the 2017 gold market events and on the outlook for 2018. We all now how forecasts work (I have just read and quote “if you have to forecast, forecast a lot“). Even so, the more you read and know, the better (provided you have a critical knowledgeable mind). The documents are available for download at WGC’s website or from here:

In another issue, a World Gold Council report states that:

  • Cryptocurrencies are no substitute for gold. In a summary of their report, WGC says”Bitcoin’s parabolic price rise was the big story of 2017 – putting the spotlight on the cryptocurrency market. While gold’s performance was a solid 13%, it was a fraction of the 13-fold increase of bitcoin by the end of the year.
    Some commentators went as far as to claim cryptocurrencies could replace gold. Cryptocurrencies may become an established part of the financial system. But, in our view, gold is very different from cryptocurrencies, as gold:

    • is less volatile
    • has a more liquid market
    • trades in an established regulatory framework
    • has a well understood role in an investment portfolio
    • has little overlap with cryptocurrencies on many sources of demand and supply. 

    These characteristics underpin gold’s role as a mainstream financial asset that will likely continue to resonate in today’s digital world.

Diamonds as an investment is no longer news; it’s been around since the oil crises of the seventies. There has been some evolution recently, related to the blockchain technology and crypto coins:

  • De Beers, has announced that “it is progressing development of the first blockchain technology initiative to span the diamond value chain and provide a single, tamper-proof and permanent digital record for every diamond registered on the platform.” Read more here, at IDEX.
  • The Israel Diamond Exchange (IDE) unveiled a new diamond-backed digital coin at IDWI (international Diamond Week in Israel). “The Israel Diamond Exchange and startup CARATS.IO have unveiled a new diamond-based crypto currency called CDC (Carats.io Diamond Currency), which they created together. The new coin was unveiled yesterday (Monday) at the International Diamond Week in Israel (IDWI – February 5 – 7, 2018). The trade in the crypto currency will be based on a new index, presented yesterday for the first time, which will reflect the daily trends in the diamond trade at the IDE. The index will be updated daily on big LED screens, which will be set at the Trading Hall. The index will reflect diamond prices set according to 14 parameters for comparing diamond prices”. To know more, just read here, at IDE’s website.
    According to Founder and CEO Avishai Shoushan, CARATS.IO’s extensive ecosystem of products will elevate the entire diamond industry. CARATS.IO is creating two separate cryptocurrencies, each backed by diamonds purchased on the Israel Diamond Exchange. One coin, called CUT (Carat Utility Token), will be used specifically in B2B transactions between eligible diamond traders. This currency will enable safe peer-to-peer transactions, altogether eliminating the need for financial intermediaries. The second currency, called CARAT, is meant for the wider market of financial institutions and digital currency investors. Both currencies will be backed by diamonds, with a market cap coverage of 25 percent, significantly reducing their speculative level of investment.“, in previous news.

What to expect from gold in 2016

The World Gold Council just published their review of gold’s performance during 2015, examining the factors that may influence gold in 2016.

According to the World Gold Council’s report, the effect that US rates have had on the gold price is overdone and may take a back seat in 2016. Amid expensive stock valuations and high market risks, gold’s role as a portfolio diversifier and tail risk hedge is particularly relevant.

Their report is available here or at their website.