Dredging 2016 – IADC report

IADC’s review of the global dredging market, Dredging in Figures, is published annually. Released in September 2017, this edition focuses on the international dredging industry’s revenue for 2016.

The report (just click the link) highlights essential information about the dredging industry, divided into three sections – Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) that includes sustainability, emissions and safety, the drivers of the dredging industry, and the turnover in the open markets of the industry. Statistics presented are based on information from public sources and IADC member companies.

(adapted from https://www.iadc-dredging.com)

Really? The price of diamonds collapsing?

No doubt the commodities have seen recently a sharp decline in price (do you remember oil at 150 US/bbl and gold at 1.600 US per oz or iron, or copper?). Yes, there are problems brewing in China (perhaps brewing is an understatement in face of the stock  markets sharp decrease of the last few days) and Europe stagnates at best (but anyway this was never a major diamond market) and the Middle East is suffering . On the bright side, the US has shown a solid growth.

I have just read a post by Ben Moshinsky at the Business Insider claiming “The price of diamonds is collapsing”. The main arguments used are anecdotal and as such can be easily contradicted, starting a never ending, fruitless argument. I don’t like the use of one sided view “analysis”, pushing a perspective (in this case, the end is coming) as the complete indisputable truth. I would like to see a complete analysis, a broad balanced perspective on available data ; isn’t that what we analysts are supposed to do?

Conflicting views

Yes, diamond markets face plenty of threats: synthetics (I have heard about this since I started working in the industry) and stiff competition form other luxury/high end product categories, especially younger generations). Yet, diamonds still holds an allure as a symbol of status and love. Yes, diamond markets will survive and thrive in the future.

Crisis and the gold market in Portugal – Crise e mercado da ourivesaria em Portugal

Kgs Ouro Portugal
Gold (ton) used in jewellery sold in Portugal -rise and fall (blue – jewellery pieces locally manufactured; red – imported jewellery)
Portuguese GDP quarterly annual rate of change (%)
Portuguese GDP quarterly annual rate of change (%)
It’s the crisis, but not the 2008 one. The Portuguese gold jewellery market has shown a marked decrease since it’s heyday in 1999-2000 (either in gold content, USD or EUR value), paralleling the growth crisis of Portuguese economy – clearly unprepared for the EURO currency. Now a small fraction of its volume in 2000, the gold jewellery market seemed to stabilise with last year’s (hopefully) economic turning point.
The 2008 crisis had other effects on the Portuguese gold market, gold savings being traded for cash and generating a close to 1.000 MUSD gold export maximum in 2012. But that is the theme for another post.
Golden years ahead, perhaps, but not soon – neither for the economy nor for the Portuguese gold market.
A crise do crescimento português (gerada pela adopção do EURO, para a qual não nos preparámos) está espelhada no mercado nacional da ourivesaria, quer numa perspectiva de ouro contido – no primeiro gráfico, quer no seu valor (medido em EUR ou USD). Agora uma pequena fracção do seu volume e valor em 1999-2000, o mercado nacional de ourivesaria parece ter estabilizado, um efeito do ponto de viragem (esperemos…) da economia portuguesa.
A crise de 2008 (que muda de nome mas não acaba…) teve outros efeitos no mercado do ouro em Portugal, com a troca das poupanças em ouro dos Portugueses por dinheiro vivo e exportações de ouro que atingiram um máximo de quase 1.000 MUSD em 2012. Mas isto é tema de outro artigo.
Os anos de ouro vão, talvez, voltar, mas não é para já – nem para a nossa economia nem para a ourivesaria.